I disagree that ltb and h as mastered by Buffett wouldn't work with the high pe stocks...I think it greatly depends on the stock.
for every csco, we can also show qcom at 200. how long will it take for qcom to reach a new high? buffett is from the old school, pre- pc, pre-internet, his unwillingness to learn the new world has hurt him badly.
let us list the environment we are currently in:
-daytraders
-powerful words from analysts who can swing the entire market up to 10% in one day
-rumors such as china unicom, correctly of incorrectly printed by wsj
-cnbc/cnn/fox/bloomberg
-hedge funds
-chat arenas
-alan greenspan
-etc.
the method of investing has drastically changed because of the above. A g/k might not be g/k forever, it gets old, and a new young blood would emerge. look at ibm, msft, att etc to name a few. it is easy to be ltb/h msft ten years ago, how about a few months ago. the fundamentals have not changed although there is a cloud overhead. look at the irony, msft dropped 5% just because one analyst stated that the breakup value is less than whole. and dan niles, he moved the market on monday, simply because he moved to lehman.
i am still wondering what happened to that suggestion of buying elon at 90+, go on margin, and sell cc to get some good return. it was a method used to help a lady in distress. i hope there was a happy ending, and would someone share the follow up.
best to you.
paul |
