(Whoops, subsequently to posting this post, but within the edit period I discovered that Merlin beat me to the punch. Can't keep up with this damn 28.8 dial-up connection, so forgive the redundancy, but I'll leave my post up anyways since it also adds insight not only into the advertising Tornado, but also the guide licensing Tornado)
Tornado sighting at last!
I've gone over the GMST numbers. It truly looks like GMST is at an inflection point. What I have also discovered is what looks like the beginning of the EPG/IPG licensing Tornado as well as the EPG/IPG advertising, Godzilla Tornado (to be consistent with Merlin's stubborn view on the issue. I forget if I finally caved and agreed with him).
In any event. Bank Boston Robert Stephenson indicated that they believed that guide revenues equaled (or nearly so) VCR + revenues this quarter (although GMST does not break the numbers out into product categories). We also know that the VCR+ business is growing at about 10% a year (possibly even less which would make guide licensing revenues even greater). Using these figures I get the following revenue numbers:
(1) Sequential revenue growth (all sources of revenue) of 35%.
(2) If guide revs = VCR+ revs and VCR+ revs are growing at 10% per annum then you can derive the following:
Q4 '00 revs of $84 million. 1/2 = $42 million. Growing at 10%, VCR+ revenues must have been $42 mil/1.1= $38,181 mil.
Q4 '99 revs of $54,029 million. VCR+ revs of $38,181, Guide Revs of $15,848.
We know that Guide revenues were approximately $42 million. $42 mil - $15,848=$26,152/15848= 165% yoy growth.
Okay, excluding all other revenue sources as immaterial (e.g. $1.8 million in ad revenues) and assuming litigation revenue should be considered as regular income, we have yoy Guide licensing revenues growing at well over 100%. Tornadic by any definition.
In addition, advertising revenues grew 100% SEQUENTIALLY!
Can this be a double twister sighting? Godzilla and Kong, hand in hand, in tandem.
With this preliminary analysis, I'm making the call. We have twin Tornado sightings. Will they touchdown and make an extended menace of themselves. We shall have to see, but at least they have been sighted.
Tinker
{Mr. Buckley sir, it is only fitting that you beat me to the call} |
