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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 76.04

-0.3%

Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: GVTucker who wrote (36897)	6/2/2000 7:38:00 AM
From: aladin	Read Replies (1) of 77400

"Second of all, the fact that Cisco has doubled every year for the past few years is irrelevant. A stock's historical return has very little correlation, if any, to a stock's future return. " Just a clarification. As we all know a stocks past, however good, cannot guarantee future returns. On the other hand, historical return has a LOT to do with expected future return. Belief in management effectiveness, engineering, manufacturing efficiency and customer loyalty is based on past performance. History is very relevant, ignore it at your peril. While history won't guarantee future returns, we invest in companies we trust, or startups with key personnel that have past track records of success. Would you invest in a startup whose mgmt had failed at 3 or 4 previous attempts? Would you invest if they had previously been successful? How about a company that misses qtrs or one that meets or exceeds expectations? :-) John

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