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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
CSCO 76.94+1.1%Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: Zoltan! who wrote (36898)6/2/2000 8:39:00 AM
From: GVTucker  Read Replies (1) of 77400
 
Zoltan!, RE: The time to buy bonds is not when rates are rising, it is when they start to fall. That is also a time to buy stocks.

Actually, the correlation between stock returns and bond returns is lot as clear cut as a lot of people think.

Prior to the inflationary times of the mid-late 70's, stocks actually rose as rates rose, and bond prices fell. Stocks and bonds were negatively correlated, not positively, as they have been for the past 20 or so years.

The reasoning behind this is that inflation really wasn't a significant factor for the most part in our economy prior to the 70's. Thus, rates normally rose in reaction to a strong economy, not inflation. And strong earnings is correlated with a strong economy.

And looking forward, it is quite possible that the correlation may be something that we've never seen before in our economy. As I remarked on another thread, it is entirely possible that tech stocks could be viewed as defensive stocks going forward, in sharp contrast to the view that they were highly cyclical a scant decade ago.
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