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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (25715)6/2/2000 10:10:00 AM
From: tinkershaw  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
So I'll give the nod to the two of you regarding the Godzilla tornado and take no credit for myself. (I'm not always that generous so run with it while you can!)

I'm a Fool, so I won't argue with Merlin. Of course should this little twister poof out in a hurry I will of course spread the credit far and wide for this little call;).

I'm still confused about the growth of guide revenue and am unwilling to declare a tornado in that segment of the business until the confusion is eliminated.

I've looked even closer at those figures. Without the $22 million in arbitration revenues this quarter there would clearly not be a Tornado here. I am uncertain as to how GMST is recognizing these revenues. Recognized as they arrive and therefore forward stuffing the numbers, or will they restate prior quarters, or just how they are doing it. Thus, it is difficult to properly allocate those revenues and derive any fair Q to Q comparison to get an accurate storm forecast.

Also, I took a look at BBRS licensing rev estimates. Their projected growth is not bad if your a growing department store chain; actually quite good for such a business. Not anywhere close to a Tornado however. Perhaps it is the "forward stuffing" nature of the arbitration revenues which is creating the illusion of the licensing revenue Tornado. It does seem somewhat clear that recognized licensing revenues did grow more than 100% yoy as VCR+ revs are growing in the high single digits, with 10% yoy at the top and GMST has no other significant revenue streams - assuming BBRS call of guide and VCR+ revs bein about = this q.

If this were any other company I'd contact investor relations and try to get the answers. This being GMST I won't waste my time.

Tinker

Oh, P.S. did I mention RALLLLLLLLLLLYYYYY! Hope those grumbly bears up on Yosemite get a sniff of this.

Feeling that wealth effect again! :)
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