I had no idea what the numbers today would be, I only knew that they would be spun and and meltup would ensue.
However, the news of slowing growth is not surprising, housing permits have been flat for a while, the NAPM number has been down 3 months, and there will be plenty more indications that economic slowing is here.
The bear case, however, is that inflation persists despite a slowing economy. Next CPI, PPI, and NAMP cost numbers will be some of the worst yet. One only has to look at commodity prices during the sampling range to see this, and they are not moderating. How anyone can be strongly bullish as oil flirts with $30 again is beyond reason.
I was looking for a decisive break to way, way under 3000 in May, and was very, very wrong. About the timing, at least. Because of this rally, which I am, as I type, no longer long, I'm revising down my target for the nasdung to 2200. |
