Looks like we're poised for a real breakout. Lots of good news factored into recent rally
1) Macro equity picture finally starting to brighten with interest rate fears subsiding
2) Positive earnings announced
3) Orange sale/reduced uncertainty about cash/balance sheet for 3G
4) Clarity on AirTel mess finally giving VOD control
We should see more positive news on the horizon to continue to act as catalyst for stock
1) Mannesmann non-core asset sales
2) IPO's showing "true" value of VOD (VOD Pacific, Verizon, Infostrada, Arcor, etc.)
3) Clarity/details around Vivendi/portal/internet vision, strategy, and timing
4) Realization (not by those on this board and at VOD but by street) that most countries will not be having auctions with valuation established in UK (i.e., France, Spain, Italy, etc.)and these fears are overblown
5) Increased focus on operations of VOD's properties and their performance. Seems like all VOD's public properties continue to have blow-out quarters (Libertel, Panafon, Telecel, Europolitan, etc.)
6) Inclusion of Mannesmann results into VOD's which should resolve some retail investor's concerns about earnings growth sustainability, P/E too high, etc. A couple of great stats showing that a) VOD's EBITDA (not including Mannesmann) is about 5x of AT&T Wireless-just to show the scope advantages and b) Mannesmann is arguably the most profitable wireless carrier in the world with OCF margins at nearly 50%-definitely good news when Mannesmann's results are included into VOD's for those investors worried about P/E's, EBITDA multiples, etc. My belief is these numbers are really going to surprise most on the upside and this is not even taking into account synergies/economies of scale from integration discussed on previous posts.
JMO-but assuming overall market conditions hold-up- This is a good time to sit back and enjoy the ride!! |
