yu,
I obviously cannot speak for Gersh, but I watch Bollinger Bands and RSI on the volatility index (VIX), a contrary market indicator. We touched the lower BB today, and RSI is the lowest it has been since July 1999. The daily RSI is now below 38, and values below 40 are very rare. Touches of the lower BB almost always signal a market reversal the very next day, two at the most, at least for a temporary pull back of several days. The July touch came on the same day the SPX reached 1418.8, and in the next two days it opened at that level and fell, never getting more than a tick or two above 1420. That marked the beginning of the long slide into the October low of 1233.
I will post the chart, but the SI chart for $VIX seems seriously messed up. The data past August seems to be lost, but you can see the July touch.
siliconinvestor.com
All signals fail at times, but about the only way the VIX ever contacts the lower BB is when the market rises too far too fast and then it backs off ass VIX bounces. I will be very surprised if we don't give back at least the Fibonacci 38% of this latest run before going higher, and 50%, or 62% seems more likely. I sold a lot of long positions I've been in for a long time into this recent strength.
Dan |
