Re Dataplay.
The problem with any device like this - for example you could think of this a variation on the IBM 340MB disc, is severalfold;
1) Increases the purchase price of a camera or MP3 player massively. Lets say they are $250 each. So even a high end digi cam at say $750 is now $1000. Many people will prefer to go for a similar camera at $750 and buy additional storage a bit at a time, even if it costs more in the end.
As to adding a $250 device on a $150 MP3 player, dont even think about it.
2)Battery consumption. I dont know but it seems to me that a laser device would use even more current than a magnetic disc (and you have to spin those optical discs really quickly dont you?)
3) mechanical problems. Discussed here often. There seem to be reports of the IBM disc failing, too early to say how bad the problem is or even if its a general problem.
4) Its write only. Is that a problem? certainly means the versatility of deleting bad pictures on a digicam disappears. So maybe I'll be using a few more of those discs than I thought? So they'll work out more expensive than it looks at first. For example, I probably only keep one in 4 or 5 of my digi cam shots. (ie between taking the picture and then copying to PC when full). So that makes the actual cost to me of the disc 4 or 5 times its apparent costs. Now they are $25 to $50 each, not $5 to $10.
5) Probably even more critical, design-ins. How many digi cam and MP3 vendors are going to re-engineer their cameras in order to add another $250 on the entry price?
6) So people are investing $50M in this company? Doesn't impress me one bit. I thought Iridium was a dumb idea when it was announced, and the fact that people were prepared to invest $5billion in it made it no less stupid. So $50M doesnt say anything about how good the idea is. History is full of people investing money in bad ideas.
7) The discs are much more expensive than I thought they'd be. At say $10 each for a dataplay disc, I break even if I reuse a 40MB card about 12 times (not even taking into account point (4) above. I would think I've done more than that in 18 months on my current CF cards, so thats not a winning proposition for me.
And thats at current prices. By mid to end 2001 CF card prices will almost certainly be 1/2 or less than what they are today, but lowering the price of a mass produced disc will be unlikely to fall at the same rate. Plus, they have to get their money somewhere, so its likely they will try and lower the device price and keep the discs expensive to try and get you to buy one. (A bit like Epson and their printers/ink )
*) Even if it made its way into some high end digicams, do you see this device in under $500 digi cams, mass market MP3 players or cell phones? No, neither do I and thats where the bulk of our revenues will come from.
Even considering all that, I certainly think there might be a market for a download device where you could dump your CF card contents while on long vacations. I'm not sure how big that market would be. And just how long the vacation would have to be before just buying another card or two seemed easier and cheaper. What about in digital movie cameras? Would it be better than tape? Dont know enough about them to know that.500Mb probably isnt a lot when it comes to digital video.
By the way, I dont see this as a games device (as advertised on their web site). Its a disc. Thats a looooong way to go before you have a games player.
All JMHO
Joe |
