Ok, now for some serious stock talk.
As great as the last few trading days have been. I'm not completely convinced it will last very long without a pullback. Obviously I can't be 100% sure, but here are some things that don't add up.
First, I have trouble accept that the NASDAQ rose 600 points (18%) in 4 sessions on just 6 billion shares of volume. When you exclude volume due to day trading (1 billion shares ?), it's even tougher for me to believe.
Second, did you notice on Friday that the NASDAQ and many of my "NASDAQ rally stocks" made most of their ENTIRE MOVE on the morning gap and by 10am ? A lot of them as well as the NASDAQ composite were relatively flat for the remainder of the session.
Third, a short term money flow indicator called TRIN hovered around 1.20 from 11am on. I don't completely understand it, but the literature insists that when TRIN is well above 1, money is actually flowing OUT of the market.
So based on that, I have to suspect that the rally was a set up with the big money (i.e. institutions) selling to retail (i.e. us) on Friday as a result of the unemployment report. Let's face it, anyone smart enough to buy even as late as Wednesday, made a bundle selling on Friday.
I was not expecting the 4.1% number, but you know what, even if it had been 3.9% again of 4.0%, the talking heads would have claimed that the downtrend in unemployment has stopped and the markets would have rallied anyway. That's why I had no problem holding GWRX overnight on Thursday.
Ask yourself this question -- which rate hike caused unemployment to rise from 3.9% to 4.1% in just one month ? LOL !
Conclusion -- don't be too surprised if we see a pullback of a few hundred points. Maybe starting as early as mid-Monday morning. Just a hunch.
Also, I know you like PMTC, and I can't blame ya, but on rally days, you may also want to take a look at INSP, BVSN, CTXS, VTSS, DIGL. Take a look at how they did this week.
quote.yahoo.com
Take care,
Chris |
