Eric - what your "King" and "Gorilla" nomikers for Nokia and Qualcomm can't explain is the current standardization situation.
- NMT-450 replacement: Qualcomm's CDMA alternative is about to be eviscarated by Nokia/Ericsson-backed GSM-400.
- Satellite telephony: Qualcomm's attempt to create a global standard, Globalstar, is headed to bankruptcy court by next winter. Nokia stayed out and concentrated on leadership in DSL and W-LAN. What do you think - which was the smart move?
- 3G: Unicom's decision means W-CDMA for China. No commercial IS-95 networks = no 1XRTT, no HDR, no cdma2000. Both Unicom and China Telecom will migrate to W-CDMA via GPRS. W-CDMA can deliver GSM/W-CDMA dualmode handsets - something that cdma200 can't do in volume and variety, since leading handset manufacturers have no plans for GSM/cdma2000 dualmode phones. China is going to demand dualmode phones compatible with GSM from any 3G technology from day one.
I think we both know what this augurs for Korea, Australia, Hong Kong, Brazil, etc.
- 2G: GSM was consolidating its grip on Russia and India even before the China news. There is no doubt now that the year 2005 sales projections will have to be rewritten to reflect the power shift taking place in these markets that have more than 2.5 billion people. These countries (as well as Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa) won't be sizable 3G markets for 6-7 years - they will remain 2G markets. And that counts.
Your view of Qualcomm as a Gorilla is contradicted by Qualcomm's persistent inability to get its grand follies actually implemented. In contrast, Nokia-backed initiatives like GPRS are sweeping 100-plus mobile operators around the world.
Nokia's real power lies in genuine standardization muscle; something Qualcomm has now proven it lacks. No real Gorilla can afford to be as inept and clueless as Qualcomm has been with the cdma2000 initiative. This symptom of rampant megalomania was built on sand from day one and now that the collapse is taking place, the backers can only whine about "government intrusion". Qualcomm's neglect of W-CDMA in favor of cdma2000 is going to cost plenty in the coming years.
In reality, no GSM operator has ever seriously considered cdma2000. The lack of GSM expertise doomed the project; with no GSM/cdma2000 dualmode phones in horizon, there is no reason for GSM operators to back this pony. Qualcomm has had years to acquire GSM expertise and start offering GSM/CDMA dualmode products to demonstrate that it can address the needs of the world's number one digital standard.
By refusing to do so, it has painted itself into a corner. And you still think that having less than 20% of the world's mobile phone chipset market is enough to make Q a Gorilla, while Nokia does not make the grade even after sweeping the board in the standardization game? Dream on.
NMT-450 replacement, Globalstar, cdma2000 - Q should seriously consider denying its engineers access to R&D facilities and sending them to Bora Bora for a permanent vacation. Letting real pros take care of new standards would be a whole lot cheaper for the shareholders.
Tero |
