I just went thru 100 posts on MDD. Boy are they in denial.
I can remember the first time I tried Nitrous Oxide on my car at a drag strip, it severed 9 head bolts......I believe you should always learn from your mistakes and never take anything so seriously that you think you control your own destiny.
Thats why this is MDD&BS, because ultimately the market is influenced by so many factors, that isolating one or twenty-one only give you a glimpse of what is to come. So at best we all guess. If you guess right, then you obviously are a guru, and if you are wrong, you were full of BS.
The interesting thing about Guru's is they don't last and in the end are noted for an approach that was "mathematical BS" more times than not.
So "in the end" we are all full of BS. I think its time we admitted it<gggg>
I can "predict" with an above average accuracy(50/50), direction of the market over a period of 3 days. Beyond that and I am spouting BS. I recognized that, and use it to my advantage...daytrading! That doesnt make me a guru, what it makes me is "in sync" with the market more times than I am not. So as long as I can predict with a 70% accuracy rate, I am making money. When I get badly out of sync, I just stop trying to figure the market out, until it comes back to me again.
Hopefully, as time goes on, we will be able to pick out the people that are truly 70% correct for 1-2 weeks, then 2-4 weeks etc etc and learn from them. There is really little to learn in the short period I predict in. There is a poster on SI, his handle is Vitalsigns, he just posted to this thread. I have got to know him personally over the last year. He is a quick learner and I respect his techniques. He has a 1-2 week ability that I haven't seen from many posters here, so I think between all of our talents whether its using crystal balls or a Ouija board we can get something going here.
I have little interest in having 53000 messages of analytical data that expired 4 days later because "the market screwed up"! The market never screwed up, your data did. It was 100% correct for that 10 minute window that you posted it and then it began to rot from that point on. Coming back and saying, I got a bum steer, my computer screwed up, or the other 1000 excuses that put you in denial is just a waste of thread space.
So my last guess on this market was up, we went up, my last guess was up slowly, we wnet like a rocket, so my contribution was 30% correct, because if I had got the "up fast part" we all could have made a tonne more money.
If we are wrong on your predictions, then I believe some self-flogging is in order. Just so everyone knows we aren't taking ourselves so seriously that we think there is a chance for a "book deal" here.
I really don't care if a brand new investor wants to "guess" on a regular basis, because I can tell you one thing for certain, if he is right 70% of the time, over 1-2 weeks....I'll bookmark him permanently!
Just so you know what I personally did, I sold everything Shortterm(ST) because I don't like the acceleration rate in the last 3 days, so I screwed myself out of some big profits Friday that I could have had, and now am still out for Monday. My ST BS guess is a pullback this week, but we will still stay in the 3400-3650 trading range! I have always believed the NAS wants to trade in. If the pullback doesnot occur on Monday, then 4000 here we come, in which case we will trade in the 3800-4000 range for the next week.
So for me, Monday is the key "turning point day, if up, then 3800-4000 trading range, if down then back to 3400-3650 within 1 week.
Just another BS guess!<ggg>
the Chief |
