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Strategies & Market Trends : Three Amigos Stock Thread

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To: James Strauss who wrote (20078)	6/4/2000 2:41:00 PM
From: Sergio H	Read Replies (7) of 29382

Jim's Friday's unemployment numbers aren't enough to justify a rally. The numbers indicate a rise in umemployment.... for one month in a row. There's lots of conflicting data indicating that we're going to continue experiencing short term volatility while the market moves sideways. Sure the unemployment numbers as well as the housing reports are good indicators that the economy is starting to slow down....but T-Bill futures are pointing to two more quarter point increases this year. Reports on purchasing managers future plans show no decrease in spending. Improvements in individual economies throughout the world forecast increased demand for natural resources and energy; inflationary signals. Figuring out how to best play this market isn't easy. I like the utility stocks a lot, as I've been saying over the last few months. This sector has been doing very well. Up over 20% YTD, helped by deregulation and a general change in the sector landscape, not to mention exciting new technologies....but historically utility stocks go down when interest rates go up. It's been different for this sector, so far. I like semiconductors also, and stats show that the semis are in an early portion of their cycle. Forecasts call for a 30% increase in demand for semiconductors over the next year. But, historically, summerime is a good time to avoid cyclicals. A lot of techies are pointing out that resistance on the Naz now lies just where support was a few months ago. Naz 100 will do well once earnings catch up to the present valuations. Natural gas and oil stocks look fabulous for a few months for now, when the old supply/demand formulas will kick in. Interest in the biotechs right now is on individual stocks driven by news developments. Market is concerned with present earnings valuations vs future earnings prospects. Which brings me to repeat my invitation to all. Submit one pick for the next few months based on perceived sector strengh. Winner is the highest percentage return on Sept. 1. No trades. One pick per participant. Your pick Jim? Sergio

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