Hi Tom, I hope I'm not butting in here but I've been following with much interest the thread and specifically the trading method using the Moving Average Crossover signals. I find it fascinating and will be doing a little experimenting of my own! <g>
I don't have yet much confidence in finding a workable, profitable MAX system for EOD trading, except perhaps one which got us into longer term trades, and a long-only sort of thing...
I agree and I think that would really be the "Holy Grail" of trading.
IMHO, charting (TA) is nothing more than an attempt to read market emotion at any given instant or period in time and then trade on that "read". We look at a historical chart and it's easy to see the feelings that were dominant at the time - ones of bearishness or bullishness.
The intraday charts break it down to a smaller time period, but while the market is trading (during the day), the dominant feeling (or trend) is spelled out ("charted") by the chart. As feelings change and more traders feel bullish the chart reflects it as an up trend, etc.
Problem is the period of time from market close to market open. People's feelings change due to whatever reason (a news event after hours, an "event", a bad hair day, whatever!) and there's no charting those changes. Instead of seeing the upticks start and trend change as the sentiment changes - nothing. By the time the market opens in the morning, stock gaps (either up or down) reflecting the collective change in sentiment.
In my little mind, I don't see how anything short of a Ouji Board will signal the "overnight factor" from one day to the next.
Mike |
