Sir Galahad,
<<What are the threats to FC? Are there disruptive technologies on the horizon that will affect FC adversely in the near future (GB e-net, for example). Will BRCD be able to thrive in the face of such disruption?>>
There are plenty of thunder clouds on the horizon. Whether they will strengthen or dissipate before they get overhead is the question. For some time the SAN vs NAS debate has raged, as you are well aware, but the predominant view today is the two are complementary, not competitive. I'm not positive you share this view, but I think you do.
The greatest threat to Fibre Channel seems to be an IP-based storage network using Gigabit or better Ethernet. For some time SAN and FC have been synonymous, but SANs do not require FC. Separating storage communication from LAN communication does not mean they can't both be Ethernet-based. Many have observed the absence of the big Network companies from the current SAN companies. It's hard to believe a company like Cisco will ignore a several billion dollar market. Will they buy an existing company or will they pull the rug out by changing the technology away from Fibre Channel?
buck and others on this thread and off have pointed out the limitations of Ethernet for transporting large files - small frame size, large number of CPU interrupts, etc. This might be another example of underperforming but cheap carving out opportunities from below until there is only Ethernet for storage.
Another shift that will have an impact on FC SANs is InfiniBand. While the first usage of IB will be to replace PCI on the motherboard, it will creep out of the box and into networks. IB switches will be used in the next two years to gang processors together. Soon after that these switches will attach storage to the processor clusters (or attach processors to storage if you share Bill Fischofer's view). The storage network may be running FC initially, but IB can also displace FC in the SAN.
The expert opinions I'm reading today seem to suggest an uncontested opportunity for Fibre Channel in SANs for the next 2-3 years. 10 Gb ethernet may begin to make an impact after that, and a couple more years before IB is big in SANs.
How well will Brocade do in this environment? They have said they see no reason to be concerned about IB now. Intel made an investment in Ancor in 12/99 to help speed up IB switch development. Brocade said they weren't interested in being distracted by IB now, and so turned down an Intel investment.
Brocade has no GbE products now, but they do have a fair amount of cash and a fairly large market cap for a company public less than 1 year. Either or both of these assets could be used to acquire Gb Ethernet products/companies.
I understand your reluctance to invest in FC switch companies, and see no reason for you to do so. You already have an investment in the storage sector through NTAP. I think the Fibre Channel companies will do well for the next two or three years as the market explodes, but I don't know that we should expect them to be the hottest stock opportunity available. Since I am of the opinion the FC switch companies will be playing a Royalty game, they will be more vulnerable to the GbE and IB threats, and pure Gorilla Gamers can probably find other opportunities that are safer.
I doubt anything I've said is news to you, but I am interested if you disagree with any of my interpretations or opinions.
Greg |
