Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin

RMBS 95.45

+1.3%

Dec 15 3:59 PM EST

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To: Bilow who wrote (43426)	6/5/2000 4:03:00 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) of 93625

Hi all; New estimate for May 2000 RDRAM production: 5 million per month. A short article in The Korea Herald: Samsung to raise Rambus DRAM output May 17, 2000 Samsung Electronics will boost production of Rambus DRAM earlier than scheduled as Intel, the world's largest CPU manufacturer, started to recall some computers for chip defects. The company said it will increase its output of 128 M and 144 M Rambus DRAMs by 50 percent or more from the present 2 million units per month. Only three manufacturers, Samsung, Toshiba and NEC of Japan, produce the high-speed chips around the world, with their combined monthly output of 5 million units. Japanese companies will also likely start increasing production of Rambus DRAMs as the chip is expected to substitute synchronous DRAMs from the latter half this year. "The profitability of Rambus DRAMs is quite good since their price is 2.5 times that of the same-level synchronous DRAMs." koreaherald.co.kr Pretty easy to guess total production of about 15 million for 2Q00. Given the ramp continuing at the current rate, with a production increase of 6 million chips per quarter, we will see total production in 2000 of 9+15+21+27 = 72 million. With total worldwide production of DRAM at about 4 billion chips per year, this means a unit market penetration of 1.8 percent. Dollar market penetration would be more like 4 percent. These are somewhat under previous estimates for 2000, maybe that 5 million per month figure is off. -- Carl

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