Although possible, I just don't see this KPN/FT/Sonera/Orange merger happening. IMO, this is Snook (through his bankers who also have interest in seeing a merger happening) posturing for more independence from FT. Clearly, he's not happy being under the thumbnail of FT bureaucracy but if KPN/Telefonica could'nt make a go of it, who thinks that the Dutch, French, Finns, Brits, Americans, and Japanese can all make a go of it under a united front. IMO, KPN has too many influential shareholders (Do-Co-Mo, Dutch govt, Qwest, Bell South) to take this speculation seriously. I think KPN views themselves as acquiror vs acquiree.
I could see a potential bidding war for Sonera happening though. They have become a very desirable independent company with their properties in various countries and 3G/m-commerce software developments. While a bidding war would be nice for already rewarded SNRA shareholders-a huge premium could hurt the acquiror in the short-run. Sonera already has a >20 something EBIDTA multiple-a higher valuation than VOD. And don't think that VOD is going to sit back and watch Sonera just go to a potential competitor-they are an important piece to the VOD puzzle. If VOD were to make a play for SNRA as rumored in other publications, it would definitely shed some light on VOD's long-term US intentions as well given that SNRA seems to be very interested in stepping-up in the US.
Also, could be interesting to see what Bell South does. Who knows-maybe they would be in favor of such a deal (I believe they have KPN veto power) and could use Sonera merger as a "back door" consolidator for US GSM properties given their recent activity with SBC wireless? Just speculation-but another angle to be considered
Anyway, fun time to watch the action. MGJ-keep us posted. |
