Thanks for the comprehensive response to my PM, in which I asked for an explanation of your earlier post on the main thread. I hope you have a thick skin, since you're bound to get razzed about posting a serious issue on this curmudgeonly thread.
I found your analysis very interesting and germane to the market's recent changes, but lost contact at the following point:
>> This economy is heading for a big slowdown with or without the fed raising rates.
I can't accept a blanket statement like that, A. Did you mistakenly present your opinion as fact, or have you received a Divine Revelation?
>> The only reason AG raised rates was to defend the dollar - the fiat that is being challenged by crude.
Imo, it is a mistake to employ an oil-centric evaluation model to the New Economy companies, and in particular, the Gorillas. They are in the business of offering spectacularly effective productivity tools, which makes their business prospects as close to a sure thing as you will find. Discounting the future earnings of Tornado growth companies will inevitably lead to seemingly high valuations.
>> You see that the usd has momentarily begun to slide. If this slide continues more rate hikes will ensue (unless you prefer hyperinflation), and this economy will come a grinding halt very fast.
I looked up some data on the "slide", Archimedes, and it appears you are using the term in a very short term context.
120 day range May 5
$ to yen 102.73 to 111.11 107.44
$ to euro .994 to 1.125 1.065
The dollar, thanks to the efforts of AG, are holding above the mid point of the range for both of these important currencies. Were you referring to some other monetary unit?
>> The new life form I'm referring to doesn't hunt gorillas specifically, everything you say about them remains true, it just doesn't mean their equity values will continue to appreciate.
Gorilla gaming is a ltb&h investing strategy, Archimedes, and we're very aware that the markets won't be optimistic all of the time.
>> They'll burn like everything else.
I heard someone else say that recently, but I think it was in a religious context.
I think you should consider taking a break, Archimedes, before you lose your natural optimism. I don't think bears have as much fun in life as bulls, even if they do make big money once in a while.
Permabullishly,
cuf |
