Re: Access Market Stats- Revenues from DSL and HFC
Thread- A confusing article is posted at the bottom. I attempted to break out the stats in a more readable manner. Keep in mind, my interpretation could be wrong. Dell'Oro covers the actual revenue figures pulled out of 25 equipment vendors Q1 results. In other words, REAL stuff. All thrown under the blanket called, "Access Concentrators." It's getting hard to find any equipment that is not called an Access Concentrator.<g>
Dell'Oro breaks it down into three main categories of Access Concentrators and they also toss in CPE for their overall figures/categories. At least I think they do. And all figures appear to be sequential figures. Not yr/yr:
___________
Modem/ISDN
-Flat revenues but port shipments up 12%
-Market to reach $3.9 billion by yr end 2000
HFC(coaxial cable)
-Access Concentrator revs up 62%
-CPE revs up 37%
-Vendor Com21 up 40%
-Vendor Terayon up 54%
DSL(twisted copper)
-Access Concentrator revs up 19%
-CPE revs up 65%
-Vendor Copper Mountain up 36%
-Vendor Efficient up 137%
-Vendor Westell up 113%
-Overall Q1 Revenues grew 18% to $2.04 Billion
___________
The rankings are easy to read so I won't repeat here. The thing I find most interesting is how DSL modem growth(CPE) handily beats Cable Modem growth. YET the figures are flipped on the Access Concentrator side. So either the reporter got it mixed up, or it may show that the twisted pair world was just sitting and waiting(with installed empty DSLAM cabinets) for the cableco competition to force them to roll out DSL service ASAP.
The second item of note is the apparent reduction in sequential revenues by Nortel and Alcatel(3Com doesn't surprise me). I have no idea of Nortel's accuracy because I don't follow it close enough. But Alcatel, which I follow closely, is a mystery to me.
Alcatel clearly stated in their Q100 CC, that they showed 80% organic growth in the United States. Although this was yr/yr, you would still think it would translate to sequential growth. So I'm at a loss as to why they are down sequentially especially considering they dominate the DSL market in the United States. I don't particularly recall in the Q499 CC, any HUGE jump in that quarter revenues due to their DSL deployments. If the Dell'Oro figures are accurate, it does concern me. Alcatel did $138 mil in Access Concentrators in Q499. And Alcatel did $22 mil in DSL modems.
Ken- Do you know if Nortel did in fact show a sequential decrease in Access Concentrator revenues? I can tell you that Nortel did $145 mil in Access Concentrators in Q499. And Nortel did $35 mil in Modems(which kind, I don't know?). -MikeM(From Florida)
******************************
Access Market Continues to Climb According to Dell'Oro Group
Sales Levels in Excess of $2 Billion in 1Q00
PORTOLA VALLEY, Calif.- The Access Market continues to post record numbers in 1Q00 growing 18% Q/Q. Access Concentrator - Modem/ISDN revenue was flat Q/Q in 1Q00 due to price cuts, but port shipments increased 12%. Access Concentrator - Cable Modem and DSL continued to climb in revenue growing 62% and 19% respectively. On the Customer Premise side, the same growth could be seen for both Cable and DSL growing 37% and 65% respectively Q/Q.
Despite flat revenue growth in 1Q00 in the Access Concentrator - Modem/ISDN market, Dell'Oro Group predicts that the Access Concentrator - Modem ISDN market will reach $3.9 Billion in 2000. "There are two factors that will drive the growth of Access Concentrators - Modem/ISDN over time", says Paul Baranello, an Analyst at Dell'Oro Group. "First, we believe that access to the Internet via modem is ubiquitous, and will continue to be popular with price-sensitive customers who may not yet be connected to the Internet. Second, these products have evolved to include modem and voice capabilities on the same port." In 1Q00 Lucent shipped the APX 8000 that offered this new capability. Both 3Com and Nortel have announced similar products and will likely begin shipping in 2H00.
Other companies showing significant growth Q/Q in the Access market for 1Q00 were Com21 40%, Copper Mountain 36%, Efficient Networks 137%, Terayon 54%, and Westell 113%.
1Q00 Market Leaders - Access
1. Lucent + 18%
2. Cisco + 29%
3. 3Com + 7%
4. Nortel -19%
5. Alcatel -11%
The Dell'Oro Group's Routers, Access & Voice report provides in-depth data and analysis on the following technologies: Legacy Routers (data capable), Voice & Data Routers, Access Concentrators (Modem/ISDN, Cable Modem and DSLAMs), and Customer Premise Equipment (Cable and DSL). The report tracks market shares for approximately 25 vendors in terms of revenues, units or ports shipped and ASPs. |
