All Clowns Must Be Destroyed Message Board

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Pastimes : All Clowns Must Be Destroyed

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To: Lymond who wrote (37107)	6/6/2000 11:53:00 AM
From: Defrocked	Read Replies (3) of 42523

Have you been monitoring the 3Mo/10Yr spread??! We've moved 52 bps in from 66 to 14 in three trading sessions. Wow. The last time the curve moved down to this inversion level was April 3rd. And most of us can remember the 30% selloff in NDX that followed. May not happen now, but this is one spread I always watch: when this spread goes negative for a couple weeks or so a recession has occurred six months later 100% of the time I believe. (Can't remember who did that NY Fed study but I have it around somewhere.) FWIW. How's your convexity hangin'?<g>

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