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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: edamo who wrote (25979)6/7/2000 1:28:00 PM
From: John Stichnoth  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
"costind/cati/mpt" and "super 863 program".....

How about helping us get "familiar" with them?

Here's one link:
access.gpo.gov

And here's another:
christusrex.org

I believe that most around here are familiar with the general issues raised--That the Chinese government, and particularly the Army, are active acquirers of foreign technology, that the rule of law is not strong in China, that the technology is wanted for both military applications and civilian infrastructure.

However, I'm not sure what they have to do with the central issue facing QCOM--getting its technology accepted as the worldwide standard in the next generation, for voice and data. (1) The PRC is only a small part of the whole. (2) It is generally accepted that all the 3G variants rely on CDMA-based IPR, and if it's CDMA then it is QCOM IPR for which rights must be paid. (3) Nokia claims, or proponents for Nokia claim on their behalf, that NOK will be able to bypass the QCOM patents, but this appears to me to be FUD only, without basis.

Analysts' earnings projections through 2001 ignore any potential revenues from China. Jacobs has made the point that QCOM's guidance ignores China. It is an interesting prospect to us all, but not something we need to rely on for continued growth. It is the evolution to 3G that will be the central driver for QCOM over the next several years--giving plenty of time to play the game of chicken with the Chinese, and perhaps get HDR accepted as the data standard.
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