i have noticed the TRIN/price divergence on the NYSE (i'm only using the 10-day). i'm not sure if that's a good sign.
the 10-day TRIN on the NAZ is back in the overbought region already.
anyway, the sentiment indicators spell capitulation (by the bears). the 0,71 index put/call ratio which got the (!) from me is a ten year low for a one day reading. it is btw. normal for sentiment to turn as bullish, if not more so, at secondary, lower tops in bear markets (applies to the NAZ only of course...the other indices are certainly not in bear markets yet).
the Wilshire 5,000, which represents 99% of US market cap (you can divine total US market cap directly from the index level...currently $ 13,72 trillion, or about 185% of US GDP)is a spitting image of the 1997 Hang Seng:
bigcharts.com
the pattern and its implication (which is an approximate $3,5 trillion market cap wipe-out) will be invalidated if the index keeps rising sharply from here in the near future, or manages to stay in a trading range for several more weeks while sentiment cools down, i.e. gets more bearish.
regards,
hb |
