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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Terrapin who wrote (10699)6/8/2000 12:19:00 AM
From: James Clarke  Read Replies (1) of 78748
 
re: Case-New Holland

You realize that on June 30th, the share count is going to go up by roughly 80%, right? The company is going to issue about 120 million shares to Fiat at this steal of a price. And they will still have $4 billion or so of debt.

The rights offering offers you the "opportunity" to buy at the same price as Fiat converts at. Fiat's price is the average price for the 20 days of trading ending June 30th. So if you want that price, you don't need the rights offering. Just buy the stock.

This is a scam in my view. Management should be ashamed of this attempt to mislead shareholders. The merger itself was an absolute travesty for shareholders of New Holland.

I could easily make a case that CNH is a triple in three years, and I could easily make a case that it goes bankrupt. There is so much leverage and uncertainty that you can make it "worth" whatever you want it to be worth. I have done the analysis, and I pass.

I sold New Holland the day the deal was announced, and I will not be back.
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