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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up!

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To: Allen Benn who wrote (7939)6/8/2000 9:41:00 AM
From: peter grossman  Read Replies (2) of 10309
 
Allen,

I wonder if you can shed some light on this question: why can't WIND unambiguously blow away the quarterly numbers? -- no one time gains, etc.

Personally, I was encouraged by last quarter's report because they are slowly reporting more important metrics, and because they are slowly revealing the fuller story -- presumably in clearer detail to analysts -- as they gain increasing competitive advantage.

But they are increasing expenses by 50+% while revenues are increasing 34%. Twenty-two percent of revenues pretty much fall to operating net, which means they are running the rest of the business at a substantial loss.

I would presume that the royalties are relatively easy to forecast, except for those verticals which are truly in late, late summer -- and those, if any exist yet, can only help. And, they've done a good job of managing expectations. Have they simply decided to risk making their numbers by prioritizing development and other expenses ahead of profits to gain even more later, and/or are they simply missing internal forecasts which are actually rosier than public ones?

Seems to me that they (we) can have it all -- exceed revenue and profit estimates while increasing investments in product development and selling as soon as a number of verticals mature. Will we start hearing projections and actuals for I2O and TMS, and others to come?

In the meantime, wouldn't it be preferable to unambiguously make the bottom line number and use the increase in stock currency to buy what they need?
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