Haim, expectation for core PPI is 0,1% at this time. do you know what the sampling date was? the last PPI was extremely distorted by the sampling date, which coincided with a correction low in energy products and cotton. in Europe, the effects of rising energy costs can be felt in a multitude of sectors by now...apart from the official Euro zone inflation data which have clearly embarked on an upward trajectory, 'real' (i.e. cost of living for actual live bodies<g>) inflation is clearly accelerating enormously. i keep accounts of all my recurring expenses, and the differences to last year are remarkable. most items have experienced price rises that make one's head spin. many Austrian stamp duties have simply doubled for instance (e.g. the highway user permit...up 100% from last year). insurance, energy, food, light bulbs, movie tickets,etc. all have increased by far more than the official inflation rate of 1,9% would suggest. a newspaper article today suggested that numerous additional price increases are in the works to compensate for the energy price shock.
of course, we do not use hedonic pricing, so it won't be that easy to manipulate the official data (although the composition of e.g. Austria's CPI basket is a joke...very little connection with the average consumers reality as it were).
re. cyclicals, their pricing power should increase as long as this inflation upturn persists.
regards,
hb |
