Absotutely right.. a posting error compounded!
47 3/8th on the 26th according to my hand written trading log, will let you know if different when statement arrives if its important. I got out on the 1st and didn't expect it to run up to 80 so quickly. It looks good to me for another run after pulling back to 65ish (maybe 54 if really bad market though I doubt it), I'd go for calls on pullbacks without swinging for the fences.
As to cup and handle, only on a 15 and 30 min chart at the time and only a potential trading indicator. As stated at the time the obv was more compelling as was SEG's counter influence if they had lightened up on their selling. Many stocks were exhibiting similar patterns that day.
A note about patterns.. pre-naming a particular pattern as its happening is a fool's folly. But that's the potential utility of using them in the first place.. its something many people may just be starting to see form, so if it does, trading activity compounds in that direction for a while in anticipation. Double tops and head/shoulder formations, like moving averages, volume reversals and other like descriptions are after the fact events.. yet when they occur many look back and assert the pattern or probability was the cause.. its not the cause, its only the observation, much like thunder isn't the cause of lightning.
With the internet, the velocity of money has accelerated. Windows of opportunity for pattern recognition response times are smaller, I takes my chances before the pattern develops and its often wrong. Indeed patterns themselves have become so widely known that they are sometimes contrary signals once they get played by a large group of traders. A good trade needs a good story, a good possible pattern, the velocity and trading beta to get to a target within an expected time frame... etc
The market is an externally motivated and also a self agressive system that eats its own when they become weak or vulnerable. Probability constructs, when they work and become fashionable, become targets themselves. Yet oddly, as more and more sophisticated tools are applied, a good company is usually a good bet. |
