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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Direction Predictions and BS guesses
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To: the Chief who wrote (166)6/8/2000 1:56:00 PM
From: mc  Read Replies (2) of 234
 
Shorter term, huh? Hmmm.

I think everything hinges upon the Fed's next move. I don't think they will raise rates more than 1/4 point more from here, so I was confident with my longer term stuff. Therefore, I will limit my short term prediction to pre Fed meeting.

However, if they raise rates on more time I think the Nasdaq will keep taking it in the shorts as will the financials.

I do believe that the financials should not be punished like they used to be for higher interest rates. Due to a loosening of the laws they have been allowed to diversify somewhat and are not as damaged by higher interest rates. Because of that, I think any drop in the financials is a buying opportunity. I like AXP long term (though it is overvalued now) because of the fact that they are really going to stir the pot over this VISA/Mastercard monopoly business...and I think AMEX (and Discover) have a case. I also like ONE as a turnaround play.

So...predictions:

June 30 at the close:
Dow 10753.82
Nasdaq 3873.65

Now, if I really wanted to look like I put some effort into those picks I would have looked at the divisor for the DJIA and made sure that 10753.82 was even a number that could be hit, but, then I'm sure none of you would have checked up on me for that anyway - at least I hope you all don't have THAT much spare time ;)

mc
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