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Pastimes : All Clowns Must Be Destroyed
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To: hdl who wrote (38713)6/8/2000 5:36:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (1) of 42523
 
absolutely...the US position atop the international compost heap economically and militarily is the very reason why the imbalances could grow to such an incredible size. no other country would have gotten away with this.

however, i think it's a fallacy to assume that this is a limitless process. it's not as if everything outside the US were third world. of the Asian countries that were swept up in the crisis there, quite a few are highly developed industrialized nations (not all however).

could it go on a while longer? certainly...but with every passing day, and every new trade deficit record it becomes less likely.

imo the imbalances will be corrected by the markets perforce at some point. a recession, and the blowing up of various carry trades and asset bubbles are highly likely.

have to add though that e.g Carolan argues that the lunar calendar points to the bull market continuing into late 2001. if that turns out to be correct, i guess we can look forward to a 600-700 bn. current account deficit in 2001...
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