Ted - RE: Tax issue
I haven't read all the posts about this so sorry if some of it has already been posted. This is clearly going to be a messed up year when dealing with earnings projections because of the loss carryovers. We don't know when AMD will start to get taxed and therefore we don't know how overall EPS growth will be 2000 -> 2001. I think the proper way to look at this year's earnings is not what AMD has reported, but with what AMD has reported minus the % tax AMD expects to pay next year, 31%. That way a proper comparison can be made to next year. The analysts know this. In at least one report that has been posted to this thread, an analyst had two projections for this year, one for taxed and one for non taxed (the official projection), which AMD said to expect during the Q1 CC. jc-news.com The First Call estimates are for the non-taxed amount, so it is going to look like 2001 is smaller than 2000.
Also, when we make projections with PE using this year's earnings we should use what we expect AMD to make this year minus an assumed tax, even though AMD wasn't taxed in Q1. This non tax thing is just a one time thing so it shouldn't be used for projecting growth, just like selling off divisions isn't included in PE projections.
You said you were worried that in the past month or so 2000 projections became larger than 2001's. Here is some data from First Call:
(last X days)
7 30 60 90
2000 2 4 18 17 (# of
estimates
2001 2 5 13 10 revised up)
So while analysts have been increasing 2000 estimates in the past 60 - 90 days, they haven't always increased 2001 estimates at the time. This is basically what you saw was reported, but just the end result. I don't think the analysts' not raising 2001 estimates is a negative. If they were unsure of 2001, they would lower 2001 estimates, and none have done so. I think they just don't know what to expect for the whole 2001, at least that is how I feel.
RE: "As for my posts this AM, I regret bringing this stuff to the thread. It seems lately that almost any negative or critical comments wrt AMD is met with almost derision. Frankly, it is starting to sound like the Intel thread of last year."
Yeah, that has happened here more so than in the past. At least this thread is VERY up to date in AMD's doings. It seems some people on that thread are just coming to terms with the problems Intel has had for some time. There is a whole lot more discussion about Intel's blind dedication to DRDRAM. It is almost like group therapy. ;) But what makes it bad is some RamBUST investors have gone over there acting like therapists! It is like a tobacco company trying to calm someone who has received lung problems as a result of smoking the company's cigarettes. ;) |
