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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME
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To: carepedeum2000 who wrote (27390)6/9/2000 8:01:00 AM
From: Rande Is  Read Replies (2) of 57584
 
Carpe, 0.3% would probably cause an end to this rally. . .0.2% [Core 0.1%] is the accepted consensus. Anything below that and we keep partying. PPI is the first peek at May inflation. I would think that fuel prices could skew this figure somewhat. . . even though it is primarily a seasonal increase for peak consumption period. But what an increase. . . since arriving at my parents house just about 4 days ago, unleaded gas prices have risen .26 cents. . [granted that is a June consumer number].

The overall inflation rate should be at 4.1% for the year based on today's figures.

Interesting how the markets are at a crossroads on direction at precisely the time when the economy is at a crossroads on direction. If the Core PPI comes in higher than 0.1%, it could actually be more significant, since this number has not been on a steady uptrend for 2 years. . . and has brought a sense of balance to inflation reading.

It is hard not to believe in inflation, when you look at fuel prices and think of how they affect our economy. But most producers and retailers are accustomed to the seasonal impact. . .and spread the figures out over the year. We could feasibly still come in lower than expected. . . if it wasn't for Carpe's Economic Estimator Contraption that appears to indicate otherwise.

Rande Is
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