heinz, HOT WEATHER on the way!! MSNBC/Scientific American:
msnbc.com
Report: Warming will reshape U.S.
National assessment by scientists also has its critics
MSNBC STAFF AND WIRE REPORTS
WASHINGTON, June 9 ? Alpine meadows will disappear, along with many coastal wetlands and barrier islands. Cities will be hotter and more humid. Ski runs will be scarcer, the demand for air conditioners will increase and scientists will have to combat a likely resurgence in insect-borne diseases such as malaria. This is part of a new weather forecast for the late 21st century that sees average U.S. temperatures 5 degrees to 10 degrees warmer than today.
ASSAILED BY some critics as too pessimistic and little more than guess work, that assessment ? made by a dozen government agencies and hundreds of scientists in and out of government ? is of a country coping with global warming.
The report, four years in the making, is the first-ever detailed ?national assessment? of what a much warmer climate could bring unless steps are taken to curb manmade emissions of ?greenhouse? gases like carbon dioxide. It is the product of numerous workshops and reviews by hundreds of scientists who examined global warming?s likely regional impacts as well as its effect on human health, agriculture, forests and coastal areas across the country.
Titled ?Climate Change in America,? it is likely to be released next week and later presented to Congress, which asked for the assessment a decade ago. The Associated Press obtained a late draft of the report?s overview summary.
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--Select a region--SoutheastNortheastGreat LakesMidwest-Great PlainsMountain WestSouthwestNorthwest-AlaskaIslands
Some likely impacts if climate in the United States increases 5 to 10 degrees over the next 100 years, according to a soon-to-be released draft government report. Select a region from the pulldown above.
Southeast
Rising sea levels and more frequent storm surges threaten coastal development. Some coastal wetlands, barrier islands and beaches will disappear. Variety of tree species will increase, but many forests will be displaced by grassland and savannas. Increase in water quality problems.
Northeast
Warming will ease winter weather extremes, but bring more rain and possible flooding. Warming may exacerbate pollution from agricultural runoff in places like Chesapeake Bay. Hotter summers likely with more frequent and intense heat waves especially affecting cities. Forest species shift northward and maple trees may disappear. Some coastal urban centers may have to rework sewer, water and transportation systems because of sea level rise. Mountain regions see decline in skiing and increase in other activities such as hiking.
Great Lakes
Water levels likely to decline because of increased evaporation, leading to reduced water supply. Shoreline damage likely to decrease, but lower water levels add to marine transportation problems. Cities along lakes must adapt to new water levels.
Midwest-Great Plains
Increased stress in major cities because of extreme summer heat, but winters will become milder, reducing winter-related illnesses and deaths. Longer growing season and increases in carbon dioxide will cause higher crop yields and allow planting of more types of crops and in many cases more than one crop a year. Despite higher rainfall, warmer weather will increase evaporation reducing lake and river water levels. Likelihood of more droughts and flash flooding. Farming on marginal land will become more difficult.
Mountain West
Warmer winter temperatures will reduce snow accumulations in mountains, reducing summer runoff and complicating water management, flood control and irrigation. Higher elevation ecosystem will shift with parts of the mountain region becoming dryer. Alpine meadows in the Rocky Mountains are likely to face extreme stress and may disappear.
Southwest
Increased moisture will result in decline of desert ecosystem, while shrublands expand. Increase in crop diversity. Areas may have a variation of wet and dry periods adding to flooding and fire risks. Some birds and mammals may shift to higher elevations while reptiles and amphibians may move to lower elevations with warming. Changes in mountain snowpack will require changes in water management.
Northwest-Alaska
Warmer water temperatures may cause some fish species, including Pacific Northwest salmon to migrate northward. Warmer water species may move into Northwest. Warmer weather likely to increase rainfall in summer and cause changes in species mix. Sea level rise will impact low-lying areas especially in Puget Sound area. Warming in Alaska will increase permafrost thawing, resulting in damage to roads, buildings and impacting forests.
Islands
Sea level rise and increased possibility of storms will impact island areas including Hawaii. This may reduce availability of fresh water and in some cases pose health risks. Higher water temperatures and increased carbon dioxide levels likely to exacerbate coral bleaching and increase destruction of coral reefs off southern Florida and Hawaii islands.
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Source: The Associated Press
TOO DARK A FORECAST?
Critics argue the analysis is little more than guess work and that computer climate models ? heavily relied upon in the assessment ? are still too simplistic and cannot predict impacts on a regional basis.
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?This document is an evangelistic statement about a coming apocalypse, not a scientific statement about the evolution of a complicated system with significant uncertainties,? John Christy, a climatologist at the University of Alabama-Huntsville, wrote during a review of an early draft of the 128-page overview.
Christy, who is among a group of scientists skeptical about the likelihood of significant global warming, did not return telephone calls seeking to know whether his views have changed about later drafts.
Other critics have charged the report plays down potential benefits of warming ? increased crop yields and warmer winters that may make life more pleasant in some areas, for example.
The document acknowledges ?a complex mix of positive and negative impacts? if, as many climate scientists predict, pollution in the atmosphere raises temperatures worldwide by an average of 4 degrees to 9 degrees over the next 100 years.
An early draft of the overview summary was attacked in December as having ?an extreme, alarmist tone? on predicting impact on human health. The summary has been revised with more emphasis on the uncertainties of predicting health impacts.
TA
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Message #53527 from heinz blasnik at Jun 9, 2000 10:40 AM ET
that's sure what it looks like. remember, in the last PPI sampling period they DID record a more than 11% fall in gas prices.
now look at the energy complex charts (sample date is the 13th):
tfc-charts.w2d.com
tfc-charts.w2d.com
tfc-charts.w2d.com
tfc-charts.w2d.com
specifically gasoline rose a lot more than it fell in the previous reporting period. and yet BLS interprets the approximately 33% price rise between sample dates as a 1%+ price rise!
this is a government inspired LIE, absolutely NO doubt about that.
unless these futures contract charts are hallucinations on our part?
someone posted a while ago that we would get market friendly economic data in the run-up to the election regardless of what happened in the real world...voila, prophesy fulfilled.
regards,
hb
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