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Technology Stocks : SDL, Inc. [Nasdaq: SDLI]
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To: Ben Wa who wrote (1644)6/9/2000 1:37:00 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (1) of 3951
 
but the pe for this and other optical stocks clearly reflect the belief that published estimates are too low

So unless you believe them, why use them as a basis...for anything? You brought up the figures, then derived 31% growth, as if this was saying something meaningful. But you seem to recognize that the figures you quoted could be too low, so I don't know why you're bothering to use them. You haven't really proved anything.

You acknowledge the possibility that the stock/group could rise, but state that it would be "based purely on price momentum buying". Again, this is just an arbitrary statement without any proof or logic behind it: it is false logic to deem any rise in stock price de facto evidence of "momentum buying". There could be any number of causes, no?

The one thing it seems you haven't done is actually look at the company, its business, and what is actually happening there that is driving the impressive numbers. That is a mistake that has kept a lot of the moral bears out of the techs.

As for momentum buying being a factor that got the Naz into trouble, I concur, but I would ask you to look at the different sectors and stocks and see what has been trashed and what has thrived. What are the stocks that have made new 52-week highs recently, and what sectors are they in? What stocks are still down 50% or more? I think you will find that the market is becoming a lot more discriminating. There has been a flight to quality.
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