Cory's back:
Showing signs of becoming an AMD believer I see...What happened betweened $30 and $90 to cause such an unbelievable turnaround? Pauls absence stop polluting your outlook?
Re: "Disclaimer: I am long a good some of AMD shares with a cost basis in the low 30's....but when I start reading all the "this stock is a once in a lifetime opportunity" type scenarios..I have to say I start looking for a top."
Comment: Unbelievable to me that you bought AMD in the 30's given our exchanges at that time, but I'm truly happy for you...Wrt your disclaimer, much "hard data" has been provided by AMD since the low 30's, and I would argue that given this additional "hard data" AMD's risk/reward at $89 is much more favourable than it was at $30 when we did not know that Dresden was ramping better than expected, T-Birds would own the top-end and Duron would decimate Celeron...No time to be timid now...No top in sight imho (i.e AMD has a long, long way to run)...That's not to say that there won't be technical retracements as we have recently experienced when AMD backed off to $70, but these normal swings, in the case of AMD will be short-lived and provide incredible purchasing opportunities, as witnessed by this most recent one...Whatever money you can comfortably put in the marketplace today Cory, will provide you with a better ROI come December 31, 2000 than on any other company that I know of...I do have an open mind though and am willing to tear apart the financials of other companies in effort to ferret out a potentially more rewarding investment but, to date, more potenbtial attractive investments than AMD, based upon risk/reward ratio, just have not surfaced...Relax Cory, the major upward price spike (in absolute terms) has yet to occur...Pessimistically, $150 by Dec. 31,2000...Optimistically (and not really all that optimistic if AMD continues its pattern of flawless execution, and I have no reason to believe they won't)$300 or (much(?)) better by December 31, 2000!!!
Note: At $89, I wouldn't count on a more favourable buying opportunity arising...On the contrary, imho the possibility of a major runup is much more probable than any significant decline in price...Keep sending those cheques to your broker and put all your investment dollars in AMD (no need to look anywhere else as you seem to have realized as evidenced by your selling of your other tech holdings)) while it remains in double digits...You'll be exceedingly well rewarded come December 31, 2000, imho! |
