Paul Senior, I don't follow Marinemax. As you might guess (by reading the thread) I like WMAR long term. As to why, well, I won't repeat all the readily available press, research, financial and fundamental info that IMO supports a positive outlook. Instead, I'll briefly summarize by saying I believe the stock is undervalued, management is making meaningful progress on a host of initiatives, the company is number one in its niche, and future growth prospects are enhanced when you consider the growing impact of the baby boomers.
Near term, let me play the Devil's Advocate and say that I am concerned by the recent slide to $7. Other than regional weather conditions, there's no existing news that I'm aware of which would justify the drop. I can't rule out the possibility that sales in recent weeks could be poor. This is a critical period and a weak June quarter could keep the stock price down for months to come.
April comp sales were down 2%. The first part of May looked great with comp sales up 8%. It didn't last long however, as May comp sales results came in up only 1%. If June is following suit, this quarter could end with a thud.
At $7 a share, I would guess that any reasonable earnings shortfall is already accounted for, and then some. Unfortunately, this stock normally trades a small volume, and a weak report could take the price still lower.
Then again, as I mentioned to Gottfried, perhaps some institution (for whatever reason) simply thought it was time to adjust their position. WMAR could actually be having a good June and we might end up looking back in a few weeks at what was an excellent buying opportunity. Who knows, the MMs could be playing a part in here as well.
In any case, I'm going to ride this one out. Looking out long term, I'm not overly concerned about what might happen this quarter. IMO, WMAR is a solid play and I wouldn't hesitate initiating a position at these prices. Whatever you decide to do, best of luck.
Regards - Dale
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