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Pastimes : All Clowns Must Be Destroyed
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To: Ilaine who wrote (38974)6/10/2000 10:29:00 PM
From: marginmike  Read Replies (4) of 42523
 
Cobalt, I have eat slept and lived Qcom CC's for 3-4 years I know more about that damn company then anyone. So if you disagree so be it. The number I attributed to an analyst in the last 2-4 days using that number. I dont remember whom, however for arguments sake heres my analysis. ASP's of phones are 150-180 each(but declining). Qcom makes 3-6% per phone. The majority pay 5%-6% but MOT and LU(whom have no phones to sell) pay 3.5%. So lets say the average is 5%(The big makers Samsung, Voxx, KYO pay full boat so it skews the MOT lower rate). The 5% of say 150(conservitive since ASP were 180 last year) is 7.50 cents. That makes sense? Then add in the chip business which Qcom holds over 90% and you add another 20 gross per chip(for newer MSM's) and 12 for (older msm's). So lets say $15 per chip and a 40% margin(reported last CC) thats another 6 bucks. Last time I checked 6 plus 7.50 is 13.50 per phone. I am a conservitive sort so lets cut down 30% for my numbers still being to crazy and you get close to 10 per phone. That will increase with the intro of 1xrt which will be more profitable chips, and be more expencive phones.IE Qcom's earnings should acelerate IF(thats a big if) Cell phone sales maintain their torrid pace. They will also add GPS and HDR into their profit mix which should also add value and increase their margins. This all assumes they execute, and the market for cell phones stays robust.

By the way these numbers might still only be rough guestimates but your 3-5 per phone is a joke. Whomever you got that from should be removed from list of credible sources.
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