Dear Joe:
Let us look at Q4 2001. Austin will be at 6000 WPW putting out Durons at .18u and probably moved down to .15u plus have over a year to get the yield up to around 80 to 90%. Since the goal is to have the maximum dollars in revenue per wafer, all other production will be outsourced. At 90% on .15u, AMD could get 300 per wafer. Even with an ASP of $50, each Duron wafer would be worth $15,000. There is a possibility these could be Corvettes instead (about the same in size). 300 times 6,000 times 13 weeks yields about 23.4 million right there. Even at 270 per wafer, you get 21 million per quarter.
Dresden would also be full producing 5000 WPW about 80% at .15u and 20% at .13u getting 200 Mustangs (256K, 512K, and 1M) or 150 Sledgehammers per wafer. Assuming all 'hammers are on .13, that would mean 10.8 million Mustangs and 1.9 million 'hammers per quarter. All told, 36.1 million per quarter. I was also assuming that by the end of this year, they would start on a new clean room for Dresden in Q4 2000 and start ramping it in Q4 2001. They would have the money by then even if, Williamette is a success.
All in all, the higher number is not so unrealistic. However in the previous post, I said, that it could be construed to mean 21.6 million by Q4 2001 for a total of 64.8 million. That would be a more likely 70% of these numbers giving AMD a 40% share of the market unit wise. If Williamette turns out to be a dud, it could mean a lion's share of the revenue (and profits beyond all but, the wildest of our dreams).
Pete |
