Pete,
I think my estimate for Dresden is similar to yours (except yield, where you may be a little too optimistic), but I think we have a difference of opinion on Austin.
Regarding .15u capability, I don't know it the equipment there has that capability. Until we know, we can't count it. Your yield here is again on the high side, and I don't think it is realistic to expect 100% CPU. There will be some outsourcing, but it will not be complete, and some lines may be down due to conversions. Given this, my estimate for # of dice per wafer would be in 150 range, far lower than your 270 to 300, and wafer starts less than 500 per week.
As far as 2nd clean room in Dresden, it would be a great news, but until (and if) AMD announces it, there is no point in counting it in output.
But even with my optimistic number of 56 million units, we would surpass the 30% unit market share, with total world demand at 150 to 160 million units, giving AMD 35 to 37%.
Joe |
