Ken, Now that natgas prices have skyrocketed I think your $3 target is a mere 3 months or so away. Below is a copy of a post I made on the RB PANA board, replying to Psychopop who speculated about a likely impending press release:
Psych, Great to hear about impending PR. I?m gonna take a wild stab and guess that it will be a general update of what was discussed at the annual meeting and will reference the fact that a complete copy of the transcript will be available at the PANA web site. As we know, there is no drilling news expected at this time, so I think given that the annual meeting just occurred and the stock has powered up 20% since then, this is a good guess re: the PR?s contents. The SEC may have contacted PANA about this latest move in the stock and asked them to comment on any news they know of that may have caused the rally.
If in fact the above is the subject of the PR then I would be compelled to again raise my price targets, to $2.50 (from $2) by 8/15 and to $5 (from $4) by 11/15.
Here is my logic. I believe such a PR is blatantly a hype release ? nothing more and nothing less. This will represent the final confirmation that one of the following 2 things must have occurred:
1) PANA management has finally wrested control of this company from the grubby hands of Carl I., and they are now freely promoting the stock all they want. Carl is no longer succeeding in keeping the stock price artificially depressed so he can buy the company out at some point.
Or, 2) Carl is still calling the shots but has decided to swing the other way --- he figures if you can?t beat ?em, join ?em. Power the stock price up and then use this company as an acquisition vehicle to go buying up all the smoking relics of once great little O&G companies out there.
Either of the above is immensely positive for PANA, obviously. If Carl was still trying to keep the stock price depressed then there is no way he would let them put out this hype release.
This stupid little release will be the equivalent of a bell ringing in the halls, telling everybody that the coast is clear and its OK to buy the stock. This will get the big boys interested in the stock. This release will signal the beginning of what ought to become a massive hype campaign.
I know the ?h? word has a lot of bad connotations but first, you should know that I use the term very broadly and define it as basically anything other than reporting actual, material news about a company?s business activities. This is a broader use of the word than most people.
Hype is a necessary tool for OTCBB companies and is effective in certain fact situations. If OTCBB companies don?t bang their own drum then no one else will. But hype is worthless if not accompanied by significant progress in the company?s business activities. Hype makes the most sense and is the most effective when the following two situations exist: 1) A stock?s price has significantly disconnected (on the low side, of course) from its fundamentals, and 2) The company is about to embark on a series of moves that could lead to significant growth.
A disconnect of the stock price from the company fundamentats usually occurs because the stockholders who bought the earlier story, which has now long since met with failure, have all bolted from the stock. It is only human nature that once a shareholder is burned with a stock they will usually never get back into it again. So when a company turns it around, if it doesn?t do any hyping it basically does not have a very receptive audience (i.e. only its existing shareholders) when all the great news starts rolling out.
This is where hype comes in. Hype exposes the new story to a brand new group of folks, who have a much more objective view about the stock. These new suckers were not burned like the old ones, so they don?t look at what is happening to the company with jaundiced eyes.
Hopefully the PR and/or transcript will have some helpful bits of info for us, viz.:
1) How many wells are expected to be drilled by the end of the year and how many BCFE of reserves are they targeting net to PANA, on an unrisked basis?
2) What is the current daily rate of production for the company, in mcfe?
3) What are the anticipated results of the rework program being done at East Breaks 165?
4) State the company?s current hedge position (hopefully still unhedged).
So all PANA fans are gonna have decide right here, right now, whether to ante up and buy this stock pre-hype or wait for the PR to come out and see if there is a selloff on the news. Given the fact that this stock has left many folks behind who have been wanting to buy, any pullback on profit-taking would likely be very limited in both depth and duration, IMO, due to these such folks buying in.
I know it is difficult psychologically to buy a stock when it is at a 52-week high, but if my hunch about the coming PR is right, this stock at $1.25 will IMO be the best buy its ever been since I?ve been following it (since last fall). The key here is that not only are the fundamentals all shaping up phenomenally and the stock price is still only a fraction of the company?s intrinsic value, but now we finally would have confirmation that there is no longer any game-playing regarding artificially keeping the stock price low. |
