++, Re OSX technicals and "other subjects".
The OSX is pretty oversold here. IMO two things need to happen technically to launch another rally.
1. It holds right here, which is best.
2. A double bottom is formed at 110 which would be more typical of the OSX, and what I view as more likely.
If either happens, the MACD turns, and another rally is in the cards. If Big Dogs "bust out" is going to happen, it needs to happen soon. No more than 2 weeks. IMO a rally to 140 would start to create bearish divergences in the MACD. I expect it would be accompanied by yet more insider selling, not less. Having said that, I would view it as a final rally before an intermediate reaction back to the breakout point, possibly.
Crude oil is essentially heading sideways right now. If OPEC only ratifies current "cheating" and does not agree to increase more then a rally to the old highs of $34.50 may ensue based on current US stock trends, which are very favorable to higher prices (and is what NYMEX traders trade off). NG seems to have paused in the low $4's as well. Imo , this could very well be a consolidation before a move to $5 before the summer AC season is over. I am in some disagreement with JQP on a fall "crises" in NG. In the fall demand from AC and Heating needs drop pretty sharply. Heating demand from the NE doesn't really pickup until Nov. Also if US growth is slowing still, as I think it will be, then NG could be in for a drop, during that period. BWDIK
The OSX is at yet another crossroads. If 110 can't hold, I outta here. If it rallies to 140, I'm outta here. I've already started moving cash into other sectors now. I ignored the massive insider buying in the financials at the bottom and hence missed one hell of a rally. That won't happen again.
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BTW did you see that Bass is buying HOT? Imo the Hotels are ripe for consolidation. Also a plunging dollar is good for encouraging foreign tourism here, discouraging domestic travelers overseas, and for foreign companies like Bass to buy up hotels on the cheap.
Bull |
