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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)

NOK 6.485

-0.1%

Jan 9 3:59 PM EST

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To: Gus who wrote (5424)	6/11/2000 7:04:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) of 34857

<...once you excluded the heavily protected South Korean market, you're really talking about all those CDMAOne licensees fighting for scraps of a 30-35 million installed base. > Good point Gus! Let's exclude the heavily protected markets. Okay, so take out Europe from GSM and Australia [because it was illegal to install anything other than GSM up until the recent realization that CDMA was the way to go]. India and China are NOT exactly free markets either are they! So we should exclude those GSM sales. Okay, that leaves USA, New Zealand, and a few other places. NZ is going CDMA next year. GSM is doomed. USA is heading very very rapidly in the direction of CDMA despite the big head start of GSM. Now with those exclusions, let's compare growth rates, even without 3G in action. How many photonic angels can dance in spectrum an in antennae is precisely what is being argued about Gus! We can't stop thinking about that because that's what matters. $35bn says so in the UK. You'd need to re-read what I wrote about the parts shortages and low margin standards and products because you obviously misunderstood. Of course Nokia won't have a parts shortage. With their high margins they can outbid everyone. Watch what customers do. That's the best guide to what's a good technology and what isn't. The growth and future is in CDMA. The future is soon. Well, it's today really. Notice how CDMA got 15% in 2 years? You said it started in 1998 and has now got 15% market share. Not bad going against the great GSM! Maurice

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