The UnBelievable Market Forecast
June 12 - 30, 2,000
Monday
Open - Gap Down: Trigger stop loss of mostly long, but nervous investors. (Can't risk three failed gap ups anyway)
Intraday - Move up: Reinforce buy the dip. High enough to trigger short's stop loss.
End - Drift down, provide a new buying opportunity.
Close - Down (but above open)
Tuesday
Open - fairly flat, up enough to make the people who didn't buy the Monday PM dip feel bad.
Intraday - Sideways with modest up trend the result of alternating up down moves. In the process give longs and shorts the sense they should have been able to make more than they did.
Close - Cautious but clear up - Demonstrate that the smart money is accumulating because they already know the CPI numbers are great and the market is going to rock.
Wednesday
Open - Gap Up - Limit supply in morning to begin to print big gains.
Intraday - DISTRIBUTE
Close - Allow the volume of distribution to take prices somewhat lower but close higher than open.
Thusday and Friday Down - Don't want to give the FOMC any sense that the market's are not very nervous. Caused by unprecedented distribution, it is explained by reluctant acknowledgement that the FED is going to raise rates .25 anyway.
Week of June 19 - Hey .25 is GREAT! Enough to keep the economy from overheating but not too much to be an earnings drag. DISTRIBUTE
June 26 -27 Modest Down, Contain mania for the Fed. (Besides there is only so much the supply can expand and the price continue to rise.)
June 28 - 30 Fed Announces .25 and the Balance of Risks for Inflation - Distribute so much that the market falls 12-15% on Wednesday and Thursday. Margin calls so institutions can buy in at good prices.
June 30 Open up, drift down, close up. It is a long holiday weekend and don't want people thinking about not showing up the following week...In fact MS/NBC and CBS Marketwatch make it clear that the summer rally begin July 5 and wait until you see how many companies beat analyst estimates.
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