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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Eric L who wrote (26167)6/12/2000 2:50:00 AM
From: gdichaz  Read Replies (2) of 54805
 
Eric L: Since data is my primary focus, I would agree that a wireless data tornado watch makes sense - right now.

I would only add that the data watch has two areas worth looking at closely - wireless and fiber.

In other words, the trick is to see which technologies make the connection for data by wireless means to the internet / intranet most efficient and effective.

This involves many complex issues and players and will take at least two quarters to begin to evaluate with much confidence - with a year as a reasonable time for greater clarity.

As of now though a couple of things seem to be emerging,

CDMA has a major advantage on the wireless side when mobility is taken into account. Jury is very much out on the "fixed wireless" area.

Optical is key on the wire side. Movement is very rapid right now.

On your company list,

Qualcomm is a natural candidate with its gorilla status in CDMA.

Cisco may or may not be in the strongest position on the "wire" side (meaning fiberoptics in reality).

NT may be stronger. But this is unclear.

And for this thread this is a test case of whether Cisco's networking gorilla status can be moved effectively to fiber where NT is King. And what Cisco is doing in wireless. What NT is doing is easier to see and evaluate.

Perhaps Uncle Frank can help with what Cisco is doing to foster the wireless to internet connection - which I see as the key to future success - i.e. working both sides of the wireless / internet.

And of course the fiberoptics component equipment suppliers, JDSU and SDLI are in a strong position because they supply the major "system" providers, so they do well regardless of whether the Cisco's, NT's or LU's win relatively.

Last, I would be careful with the "box" makers for phones and handhelds - question Nokia's and Ericsson's ability to maintain their relative position as leaders. I would look to Asia for the boxes and the packaging of phones and handhelds.

All this is just IMO of course, but based on a bit of study and thought.

The real point is that no one knows yet what will actually happen out in the real world. All just bets - educated ones hopefully.

Next year at this time, choices should be easier.

Best.

Cha2
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