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Strategies & Market Trends : Piffer OT - And Other Assorted Nuts
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To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (38597)6/12/2000 9:54:00 AM
From: Original Mad Dog  Read Replies (1) of 63513
 
Anybody think that the government will miss the tax windfall that the stockmarket mania has brought if it goes away?

They will miss it -- I believe that the estimates show it to be between a quarter and a half of the entire surplus the past two years -- and it will go away.

Anybody think that your random elected government official would sacrifice long term economic health for immediate fiscal gratification?

The random politician, yes. Bill Clinton, of course, is a different sort of statesman. He has never sacrificed anything for immediate gratification, immediate or otherwise. <gulp>

Just suggesting that until November, we may have the government pulling strings to keep the bull snorting.

I agree that they will want to. But I also believe that their ability to do so has become far more limited than it used to be. For one thing, investors fixate on the Fed, which with Greenspan at the helm is probably less responsive to political pressures than it has been in the past (though still not immune from them). Second, manipulation through opening of the government spending spigots is blocked by a Republican Congress, who will only allow stimulation in the form of tax cuts.

I would rather see the market go down between now and November in the cause of long term health of the equity markets than to see a short pop followed by years of scraping the mess off the streets.
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