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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: gdichaz who wrote (26172)	6/12/2000 12:22:00 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) of 54805

Cha2, << a wireless data tornado watch makes sense - right now >> I think it might be time to at least think about how the watch would be organized. The breezes are blowing. GPRS infra is being delivered all over the planet so the revenue tap is turned on. ERICY & NOK the primary beneficiaries and the handset side will turn on by Q4 or Q1. 3G in trial everywhere, now or soon and 1xMC will roll nationwide in Korea early 2001. [I'm still a bit on the fence about 1xMC phase 0 being 2.5G or 3G. But either way it unlocks the door for high speed wireless data and I have no real hesitancy calling Revision A when it is standardized 3G]. As for fiber, I assocociate that more with wireline, although it certainly has significance on the wireless side. I kind of look at fiberoptics separately right now. << The trick is to see which technologies make the connection for data by wireless means to the internet / intranet most efficient and effective. This involves many complex issues and players and will take at least two quarters to begin to evaluate with much confidence - with a year as a reasonable time for greater clarity >> I agree. << CDMA has a major advantage on the wireless side when mobility is taken into account. Jury is very much out on the "fixed wireless" area >> CDMA, yes. Qualcomm a given on the watch list. I placed ERICY and NOK on the list because they are the key infra guys who also do handsets (and probably MOT should be there as well). LU & NT are key infa suppliers as well, but my reason for including them (and CSCO) is that right beyond the traditional IS-95, GSM/MAP, IS-136, network is the router based IP network, and I think we have to be thinking ahead to include these "general networking" players in the equation. << Perhaps Uncle Frank can help with what Cisco is doing to foster the wireless to internet connection - which I see as the key to future success - i.e. working both sides of the wireless / internet. >> I'm hoping he will. CSCO seems to be scouting out the wireless world and is kind of everywhere circled around it, but I can't get real focus on how they plan to play. Just thinking out loud. I thought it might be time to discuss how we organize a watch. Thoughts from others appreciated, and I'm not totally sure the list I have started to compile in my head is the approriate one. - Eric -

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