Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: dougSF30 who wrote (115629)	6/12/2000 6:54:00 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (1) of 1570834

30 year old doug in San francisco, RE:"Scumbria, exactly. I never see any rigorous measurements of the predictive ability of any of these TA models. ( I use 'model' in the generous sense, since most of these methods are so ill-defined as to prevent any quantitative assessment.) On the other hand, to the extent that some chunk of traders believe in any particular model, it may actually wield some influence. I find this either disturbing or amusing... I'm not sure which. Perhaps TA is just a giant book/seminar-selling racket? Or maybe it's more Cramer-like, where the authors are actually doing the opposite to what they recommend, thereby exploiting their followers-- hey, sounds like organized religion! But I'm beginning to run on... and I'll have offended too many people if I continue." Now, now, now... I'm one of the original TAers. I think the problem lies in that people that don't know much about it knock it because they expect too much from it...something like: "what price will stock X be on Decemeber 31st, 2000".... I'd like to meet the person who can do that on a consistant basis... On the other hand...some simple momentum indicators coupled with oscillators (cycle analysis) can help trying to find buy or sell points...Of course it really helps to know the longer term trend... Take AMD for instance...you know fundamentally that the trend is up...but do you know when to buy the dips. TA will give you a better shot at it... As for Scumbria...he could do some TA on how the market will react to the upcomming rate hikes! <G> As for Cramer...plllaaeee zzzee.. He just writes out loud. Jim

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