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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)
NOK 6.910-0.9%3:59 PM EST
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To: Eric L who wrote (5499)6/13/2000 11:10:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen  Read Replies (1) of 34857
 
Now we're really entering the Hicksville city limits... are analog phones supposed to be still on sale in USA in 2004??? Wow. Those licenses are now being simply revoked even in Australia (which is no ball of fire as a mobile market).

These "four years into future" predictions will be a good source for office humor sometimes during the first administration of Mrs. Clinton. I'm assuming that Dubya gets a term and triggers a big come-back of liberalism. Anyway - 50% share for GSM/TDMA in USA would not be totally shabby in 2004... even though it's an obvious blackballing move from Strategis.

I'm not sure how defining these market shares without overlap is done, since GSM/TDMA dualmode phones will become the high-end norm within two years. AT&T is going for the international roaming as fast as they can, since this gives them one definite edge over Sprint.

It seems petty and vindictive to exclude iMode totally from these projections. Surely Nextel is going to have more than 15 million subs by 2004. That seems like a healthy chunk of change to me. How come the 3% analog sales are worth mentioning, but not Nextel?

Is Nextel expected to vanish from the face of the earth just because it does not fit the neat standard split used by Strategis? This is annoying, because a chunk of those Nextel phones on sale in 2004 will have GSM as a roaming mode.

Tero
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