Speculating on CATS . . .
I'd like to make a few comments on CATS and the whole semi group in
general. First let me say that I feel like a "rookie" compared to
the folks who contribute so much detailed info at this site. But then I
realize as I look back over the past several months at all the predictions
(gut feelings?) that didn't pan out (at least not yet), we're all shooting
in the dark as best as we can here. There's been a lot of interest
in CATS at SI, but now that the whole semi group is taking a solid thumping,
many of us are abandoning some of the analysis that seemed so justified just
1-2 months ago. Joseph Wang alluded to this recently in one of his replies.
So the question is: what fundamentally has changed? Anything? Or were we
all blowing smoke in the first place on this?
I personally "feel" that if we get out of the short term speculator mode,
this whole semi group looks as solid as ever. CATS is a good example here,
perhaps. I'm only looking at the 100-day chart, but it looks to me like we
are rapidly approaching a good entry (or re-entry?) point on this stock.
If I were speculating on CATS, I would think that the current price (5 1/2)
to 4 3/4 looks very reasonable from a chart point of view. I will begin to
nibble at CATS here with a mental protective stop and an eye on the exits.
It's down about 50% from its high in early September. Other semis that
we've all come to know (and love?) are in similar positions. I know
that they have had big runnups, too, and that does worry me.
Anyway, what do others out there think of all this? I am humble enough to realize
that I don't know much about the psychology and valuations aspects of this market.
Anyone who's been around a while care to share their experiences from
past similar situations?
One more thing, Bao. Seems like a lot of times we are not looking forward, but reacting
backward, if you get my drift. I for one would begin to look at this whole semi group,
CATS included, not at a point at which to be selling, but a point where value has come back
into the game, suggesting some good buying opportunities, especially
for those equities that have good fundamentals and that have shown a little downward resistance.
It is not easy to hang on when the bottom seems to be falling out. And,
everyone has their own reasons and financial requirements, so I can understand that, too.
Anyway, good luck! |
