actually, there IS some sidelines money that has accumulated in recent weeks, as the most recent fund inflows have not been deployed yet (cash to assets ratio increased from 3,8% to 4,9% in a three week span). however, if we get a benign CPI tomorrow (what else? it's fresh from the BLS factory) my guess is the deployment will continue and bring about fresh rounds of insider selling. note, the data i posted regarding Rydex ratios and p/c ratios are not exact timing devices...the same goes for polls data like the AAII , where bulls increased to 62% again this week (bears fell to 23%, yet another extreme swing in sentiment).
they only warn that the time to get out/short is drawing near. last time a record low in the Rydex ratio was recorded, it took about two/three weeks to produce a sell-off.
it is btw. very common to find bullishness at a secondary, lower high to actually be greater than at the all time high that preceded it. to achieve that, we need a bit more of a rally, preferably a technical break-out in several indices to convince the last doubters so they can be trapped.
there is still an interesting divergence in the NYSE TRIN. i have never seen the NYSE 10-day trin go this high on a rally...this is highly unusual, and i'm not certain what it portends.
regards,
hb |
