blue sky breakouts in the energy complex:
tfc-charts.w2d.com
tfc-charts.w2d.com
tfc-charts.w2d.com
coming close to the Saudi jawboning threshold once again i suppose...the problem is, many OPEC member states are already producing at full capacity, and will therefore strenuously oppose a hike in the production quota.
the problem, as an OPEC official from Iran recently observed, is excess demand for gasoline in the US that meets with extremely low inventory levels. pumping additional crude will not help to alleviate this situation. an increase in refining capacity might, but whence should it come? alternatively a decrease in demand (read: recession) would do.
without wanting to sound alarmist, in light of the fact that the American Oil & Gas Journal recently concluded that to merely keep gas inventories stable, refineries would have to run at 98% capacity throughout the summer, this looks more and more like a budding energy crisis.
but not to worry...if in doubt, just ask BLS. they'll tell you prices have actually been falling, so in reality, everything's a-ok.
we'll get a concerted propaganda barrage emanating mainly from Saudi Arabia (which is the only OPEC producer that might have reasonable spare capacities, in the region of 1,5m bpd.). we'll see if the markets believe it.
regards,
hb |
