Posted this privately on the weekend. Repeating as it shouild be of general interest.
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Off the top of my head ( I will have to confirm later when I have more time):
Passive Optical Components: JDSU, SDLI, NUFO, AVNX, NT, LU GLW,ADCT, ALA, SPLI, APAT (last two minor players due to capacity, low visiblity on Wall Street)
Fiber Cable: LU, GLW, OCCF, STKR, FBCE (Note single mode cable demand versus capacity now in balance as per GLW CC)
Active Components: ETEK, SDLI, ALA, ADCT, NT, LU(now with ORTL), MRVC
Submarine System Components: ALA, SDLI
Light Chips (MEM/MEM like systems): BKHM, LPTHA
D-WDM Long Haul Systems: LU, NT, CIEN
D-WDM Metro: SCMR, FIBR(minor player), ONIS, Chromatis, CIEN, MRVC (development only)
>>2. What is the outlook for metro-DWDM?
>>Prospects are positive, but size and timing of growth >>uncertain
Confirms what I have heard on the CC's. Cost does not justify the transistion. Business segment demand must accelerate in order for greater deployment to happen.
>>3. How quickly are we moving towards IP over DWDM?
>>Not as quickly as many may think
That is a little surprising as the only reason to move is to have greater capacity in order to eliminate the quality of service issues that IP switching versus ATM pose.
>>4. What is the future for ATM, SDH and SONET in an >>IP/DWDM environment?
>>These older technologies should continue to see good >>growth for the short to medium term at least
Confirms what TLAB's has been saying.
>> What is the likely impact of system-in-a-box?
>>Devices combining optical and data networking are coming >>to market, and both large and small companies will have >>room.
Not as fast as one would expect. All optical networks with true optical routers at the core are 3 to 5 years away according to AMCC. Even then there will be non-optical solutions at the edges of the system.
>>7. What is the likely impact of shortening lead times?
>>Missing a cycle or having the wrong product available can >>erode marketshare and revenues; but recovery can be quick.
Agreed.
>>8. What is the impact of current shortages in components >>and how long will it last?
>>Shortages are slowing network build and spurring new >>technologies; demand to outstrip supply for some time to >>come.
Indications are some components could in shortage for the next two years(can't remember the CC).
>>10. What are the prospects for further consolidation in
>>the components industry?
>>More consolidation is in store, and possible partial
>>flotations of optics businesses
Already seeing this, spin off of METHA. |
